Korea: War Warning

[Coffee Mix-Master]

Just a little shout out to people who order Zoids from South Korea, there's a marginal chance that there will be an armed conflict between North and South Korea within the next few months.

WAR WARNING: KOREA

Background:
The Korean war took place between 1950-1953. Here is the wikipedia article on it:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

At the end of the Korean war, no peace treaty or armistice was signed. In essence, a state of war still exists between the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea.
There have been a number of skirmishes over the years, primarily in the disputed waters between the North and South, however the recent sinking of the ROKS Cheonan was the biggest loss of life in one incident since the halting of hostilities in 1953.
The Republic of Korea, with assistance from the United States of America (who still maintains forces in South Korea as well as the nearby bases in Japan, much to the people of Okinawas annoyance...so much so in fact that it just resulted in the Japanese Prime Minister getting the boot but that's another story) conducted an investigation into the sinking of the Cheonan and found remnants of a North Korean torpedo, complete with North Korean markings. Thus, concluded the report, the Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean submarine.
Since the publishing of this report, South Korea has severed all most economic ties with North Korea and vowed to restart propaganda broadcasts across the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ), to which the North responded by severing ALL ties with the South and warned that it would shoot at any propaganda speakers.
South Korea expects war, it has been preparing for such since 1953 but it has begun undertaking exercises to prepare for conflict recently, including special forces training (to deal with North Korean infiltrators), Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) training with the US Navy and tank training. I have also just discovered that the USS George Washington, a Nimitz class aircraft carrier is heading for the Yellow Sea to conduct exercises with the South Korean navy. So the United States is hedging its bets too.
The only wild card is the Peoples Republic of China, during the last Korean war they came to the assistance of the DPRK after Allied forces pushed north deep into North Korea, and since then China has often been seen as the DPRKs only ally. This has put them in a rather sticky situation at the moment, they deeply wish to be seen as a global power, willing and able to trade and deal with the US and the EU, but the DPRK is ruining it all, however if they abandon the DPRK then it sends a strong signal to areas such as Tibet and other disputed areas of Chinese territory who may seek the opportunity to rebel against Beijing.

What it means to the Zoidian:
If the DPRK goes all out and fires its short range Tactical Ballistic missiles and long range artillery at Seoul, it will make life in the city rather...difficult. Even more so should one of those missiles contain a nuclear warhead (which it is estimated that the DPRK does possess). So, if there are zoid manufacturers in Seoul, they will stop manufacturing, possibly permanently.
Even if Seoul does escape the worst (which given its close location to the DMZ is not very likely) the economic damage caused by any war would place a great strain on any non-essential (to non-Zoiders anyway) manufacturing, much in the same way that the recession has caused cuts in many western manufacturing circles.
Japan is also in the firing line, DPRK ballistic missiles can reach Tokyo and again, have the risk of containing a nuclear warhead, the west coast of the United States and the Hawaiian islands are also within range of the Taepongdo II ICBM.
However! All is not lost! Despite what the DPRK propaganda machine may claim, the Taepongdo missile is hideously unreliable, and most test firings usually end abruptly in the Sea of Japan, and the US Navy will have a number of AEGIS vessels on station to attack any launching ICBM, likewise Patriot missile batteries will intercept any ICBMs and TBMs that come within range. The Gulf War has shown that the Patriots have a pretty good kill ratio against Scud missiles, and most of the DPRKs missiles are based upon the Scud design. Of course, with nukes you only have to miss one...but with DPRK reliability, chances are it probably won't explode anyway.
So, if...and I stress IF, because this is not the first time that it has seemed likely that a war would take place, nor I doubt will it be the last, but IF a war between the DPRK and ROK should take place, it would mean a medium level of disruption to Zoids shipping from Japan and a very high level to any Zoids from South Korea.

Recommended reading:
planeman-bluffersguide.blogspot.com/2009/12/bluffers-guide-north-korean-naval-power.html

planeman-bluffersguide.blogspot.com/2009/12/bluffers-guide-fortress-north-korea-i.html

planeman-bluffersguide.blogspot.com/2010/05/north-korean-sub-attack-details-start.html

www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29

PS: There's also a chance of more skirmishes off Israel...but that won't effect Zoiders and is more political and religious than this forum will let me get away with!

[GhostLiger]

Dang... Maybe I should get that Blade Liger BE while I have the chance!

[Coffee Mix-Master]

Jun 3, 2010 18:05:03 GMT -5 GhostLiger said:

Dang... Maybe I should get that Blade Liger BE while I have the chance!

It's not a dead cert. In fact, I'm just reading that South Koreas President, who has taken a very strong line against the North has recently suffered a heavy setback in the local elections, with a high voter turnout with lots of young people who are usually more liberal minded and less willing to confront the DPRK. With that and Japans PM being kicked out over his failure to deliver on the Okinawa base, the area is not rushing to war...but...on the other hand, it's not exactly having a picnic either. So, it could go either way.
The DPRKs reaction when the USS George Washington shows up should be interesting...I expect Pyongyang will go very quiet all of a sudden...

[GhostLiger]

True, but still... At least I'd have it XD

[Blaze]

Glad I got Mugen when I did then XD;

[Coffee Mix-Master]

Well, hate to bump an old thread, but as I'm sure all of you are aware, Kim's done it again!



This time DPRK artillery opened fire on an ROK garrison on Yeonpyeong island, killing two marines and two civilians. ROK artillery returned fire, shooting some eighty rounds back into the DPRK causing unknown casualties.

Both sides have now halted hostilities, and there are some fifty American, South Korean and Japanese warships in or heading into South Korean waters. Whether or not South Korea will respond with a military action of its own remains to be seen, the ROK government will be under a LOT of pressure from its population to do so, as just this year alone, the DPRK has killed some fifty South Koreans and received very little retaliation in return (none in fact, if you discount the artillery fired back by the ROK yesterday). So, as can be imagined, there are a lot of angry South Koreans out there...in fact, there has been for some time, one former US GI who was deployed in the ROK once said that there was a joke amongst them that they were there to stop the south from invading the north. ;D But, the ROK government has shown considerable restraint against DPRK aggression, presumably because a second Korean war and the subsequent destruction of the DPRK would cause more damage to the ROK and its economy than it would to the DPRK. Not through military action mind you, I'd be very surprised if the DPRK even made it to Seoul if they attacked, but through immigration and refugees from the North flooding south. It is for that reason also, that the Peoples Republic of China has been very concerned about the stability of the DPRK, and there will be much facepalming in the Zhongnanhai at the moment.

In the following days we can expect a US/ROK naval exercise in the seas off Korea, much like the one after the Cheonan was destroyed, and most likely a return to the status quo until the next incident. However there is a slim chance that either the DPRK will react to the naval exercise with more artillery, or the ROK will lose its patience and launch an airstrike on the DPRK.

It's all rather fluidic at the moment, however the former is more likely than the latter.

[La Volpe]

Sheesh |: This is a pain in the butt but as long as SK holds up their restraint, our Zoids supply will be fine....

[Coffee Mix-Master]

It's a day ending in a Y which must mean it's time for another North Korean war warning!

*canned applause*



So far no ammunition has been traded, but in an ominous move, the DPRK has announced that it has begun readying its strategic rocket forces following an announcement by the US that two B2 stealth bombers have completed a mission in South Korea, showing the ability of the US to strike targets on the Korean peninsula at will.
Yonhap, the South Korean news agency, has reported that there is increased activity around North Korean rocket sites, however the primary question is 'Have the rockets been fueled'?
At the moment I'd have to estimate that the answer is No, however on another forum a member postulated the following procedures taking place over the next twenty four hours at the DPRK rocket sites:

1. Rocket fuel will be loaded on transport tankers from storage location to be transported to where the launchers will be deployed.
2. TEL erectors will be moved from storage hardened locations at bases.
3.. Warheads will be removed from storage and mounted if not at base at launch location depending on type of warhead..
4. deployment of missile launchers and support crews to remote firing location..

I can't disagree with this assessment. Once this has been completed the next step is to fuel the rockets, once this has been done then the clock starts ticking. Due to the nature of the fuel used, once it is in the rocket you must either fire the rocket within a set period of time, or drain it again. I don't think the DPRK will go this far, because it runs a very real risk of having those rockets hit in a pre-emptive strike by either the ROK or the US.

So, again, just keep an eye on the news, it's not likely to be anything more than the usual DPRK posturing that we've already witnessed too many times, and at least, so far, no-one has been killed. However it's a fluidic situation and it could all kick off within a minutes notice.
There are a lot of missile interceptors in South Korea, Japan and the US West Coast at the moment, I think there's a couple of AEGIS cruisers in Japan, so any missiles heading for Japan, Hawaii or Alaska are likely to be shot down before they can impact their targets. Furthermore, the DPRK has yet to prove that it can miniaturise its nuclear weapons to the extent needed to put one on an ICBM, so even if missiles are fired, they are likely to be conventional explosive warheads as opposed to nuclear. With perhaps a slight risk of chemical or biological warheads being used...I don't really know the state of the NBC forces of the DPRK... *quick wikipedia read* ah, yes, they do possess chemical weapons, so there's that risk too...however it's quite likely that the missiles will either fall in the sea or be shot down, so any risk to human life is low.

So, just keep one eye on the news in the coming weeks, I'm sure it'll all blow over, it usually does. To be honest, the DPRK would lose the most out of any war, and it must surely know that, anything else is just brinkmanship. Something Pyongyang specialises in.

[La Volpe]

Ah... this again... heh

[Coffee Mix-Master]

Pretty much.

I think I'll designate this song for this thread:

[Coffee Mix-Master]

North Korea has announced that it is now in a state of war with South Korea.


Big deal, right?


Not quite.


Technically, they've been in a state of war since the 1950s with an armistice signed in 1953. Earlier this month the DPRK announced that it was tearing up the armistice and all the agreements in it. So, they have technically been in a state of war since then, however equally the DPRK could regard this as just the next step on from that.

So, what happens now? Well, there are several options:

1) Nothing.
The most likely of them all. The DPRK cannot survive a war against the ROK and US, in fact it would struggle to invade the ROK without the US getting involved. Its equipment is outdated, fuel supplies limited, maintenance supplies limited and food supplies limited. Unlike the last major war when they conquered nearly all of South Korea, this time around they would be lucky to reach Seoul. With this knowledge taken into account, the primary question is, does Kim Jong-Un know this? Or has he brought into his own propaganda?
Most likely this is a move that is aimed domestically rather than internationally, there are rumours of civil unrest in North Korea because of food shortages, and this could be Kims way of trying to distract the people by giving them an enemy to fight. It could also be an attempt to win favour with the generals, who arguably hold the real reins of power in the DPRK. There is just not enough information to be sure, although one thing is for certain, no-one outside of the DPRK is buying the rubbish that is being spouted by it.

2) The ROK launches a pre-emptive surgical strike, with or without US assistance
This is most likely what Kim Jong-Un WANTS them to do. With this he can fire a few shots across the border, show the people and military that he has faced up to the big bad US and South Korea, been bloodied in battle and then returned to the table for talks. He can also claim victim status, although no-one outside of the DPRK (except perhaps the UN) would buy it.

3) The DPRK launches a limited attack across the DMZ, situation does not escalate
This is the second most likely thing to happen, a repeat of the attack a few years ago on Yeonpyeong island. People will die and the ROK will retaliate immediately, and then things will quiet down again, the DPRK will not fire back, or if it does it will be limited, and the situation will defuse itself until next time.

4) The DPRK launches a limited attack across the DMZ, situation escalates
It is also entirely possible that scenario four will play out, and the ROK will respond with a higher level of force than that which was issued against it. The ROK has long since become fed up at being the butt of the DPRKs temper tantrums and might just decide to throw a tantrum of its own and destroy everything North Korean shaped which sits along the DPRK side of the DMZ. Of course, with that much damage inflicted to it, the DPRK will have little choice but to retaliate with even more firepower and the situation escalates into a full blown shooting war across the DMZ.

5) The DPRK launches a full scale invasion of South Korea
Probably the most unlikely scenario of the five, with the sheer amount of defences around the DMZ, the fact that the US and South Korea are on alert and the antiquity of the DPRK equipment, any invasion across the DMZ would be a bloodbath for North Korea. The only field leveller they have is their nuclear program which is (as far as sources know) still too big to fit on a missile (think the size of Fat Boy or Thin Man) so it is possible that it would be used instead to clear a hole through the minefield in the middle of the DMZ since there is no chance that the KPAF (Korean Peoples Air Force, the DPRKS airforce) can get a bomber anywhere near the DMZ without it being blasted out of the sky by the ROKAF or SAM sites along the border.


So, again, just keep a watchful eye on the news, the situation seems to be developing pretty quickly now, and so if it is coming to a head, it could well do within the next seven days, if not sooner....or it could just fizzle out. Flip a coin and there's your answer...that's about the best that DPRK analysts can give you! XD

[Coffee Mix-Master]

A-10s at Osan AFB in South Korean, yesterday.



So, it's been announced by the north that the Kaesong industrial zone has been closed to ROK workers, workers inside have been allowed to leave but there are conflicting reports of how many actually have.
At first glance this doesn't seem like much, but it is a fairly important step on the road to the point of no return.
Even during the last times I posted in this thread, with the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong, all the DPRK did was close an administrative building in Kaesong, this is the first time since the complex was created in 2002 that access to it from South Korea has been closed.
Meanwhile in more ominous news, the Peoples Republic of China has mobilised forces on its border with North Korea, most likely this has occurred for an internal and external reason. Externally this will be a counter-move to the USAF sending F-22 Raptors to South Korea, it's not that far from Seoul to China and the hardliners in the PRC will holler for the government to do something, so that's them appeased. Secondly, and more importantly for the PRC, it's in preparation to cope with the potential of thousands of hungry DPRK refugees streaming across the Chinese border and eating China out of house and home. The Chinese economy is a finely balanced thing, it does not like surprises, nor does it like a million starving people with no employment to suddenly descend on it. Sadly for the people of North Korea, any of them who try to flee across the border to China in a potential war situation will probably find themselves either in an internment camp or shot.
There is, however, still the possibility that cannot be ruled out that the PRC will do something completely stupid and actually enter a war on the side of the DPRK, they did in the last Korean conflict (but only when the UN forces neared the Chinese border) and they are North Koreas closest ally. The likelihood of it happening is very low, even Beijing has grown tired of Pyongyangs crap of late, but it is something that cannot be entirely ruled out.

So, where does that leave us? Well, one more step closer to an actual shooting war on the Korean peninsular. Whilst the situation in South Korea is remarkably calm, the US has moved two more ships to the Korean coastline and sent across a heavy duty radar (basically a floating golfball) called the 'SBX' which will be able to detect any ballistic missile launches and send that data to the missile interceptors which are in the area. North Korea, aside from shutting down Kaesong, has also restarted an old nuclear power station so it can continue enriching plutonium for its nuclear weapons program. In the scheme of things at the moment it's not exactly big news, but it's another middle finger up at the UN.

My analysis (and I'm not exactly a North Korean expert...heck, no-one really is, not even the North Koreans) is that Kim Jong-Un decided to play a game that his father used to play, act up, behave badly and then demand concessions in order to stop behaving badly...only, like the boy that cried wolf, no-one is buying it any more. So Kim Jr is forced to slowly push the boundary further out and out until he is left in a position where the only option he has is to go all in.
It's possible, and quite likely, that the reason that he's doing this is because he is a new leader, and as a new leader he needs to make an impact on the real people who rule North Korea, the military, and the military is only impressed by a strong leader that shows backbone and determination in defending North Korea against its mortal enemies. Which means that Kim Jong-un cannot back down, even step forward that he takes, he cannot step back because to do so would be seen as a sign of weakness and he would either be removed from office (under cover of 'sickness') or would lose control of the military, either way would be a death sentence for him.
The fact that he has allowed South Koreans to leave Kaesong rather than capture them and use them as human shields against any ROK or US attack indicates to me that he's looking for a way out, praying that the ROK or US would offer a concession or a plan that will enable him to end this impasse without losing face in the eyes of the military...however, the US and ROK aren't playing that game any more, they are both taking a hard line and offering no concessions...and so, whatever Kim Jong-Un does, he will lose.

In a small way I feel kind of sorry for him...in a very[/b] small way.

[vigbrastle]

Some people shouldn't reproduce

[La Volpe]

So they opened an old reactor huh... inb4 it blows up o.o

Hope somebody kicks NK's arse so hard they'll never get back up again.